
My favorite sport is back, so I figured I'd break down the Cubs for this year. Breaking the news here, since Thunder Matt's Saloon is no longer. I already said that, right?
OFFENSE
Catcher: Geovanny Soto - color me as skeptical. If you look at his
career numbers, his Rookie of the Year season appears to be an aberration. I hope I'm wrong, but something about Cub catchers make me really uneasy. I'd be happy if he could give us a .250/16/65 Projected Grade: C
First Base: Derrek Lee - DLee bounced back last year with a solid season. His offensive numbers shot back up, giving him his best season since 2005. I'm not sure that you can count on that type of production again, especially considering that he's now 35, but he should be solid if he's healthy. Projected Grade: B
Second Base: Mike Fontenot - Yeah, Mike Fontenot, with a likely platoon with Jeff Baker. I'm over Fontenot. His glove is not special, his speed is not special, and save for the occasional long ball, his bat is nothing special. And he really pisses me off when he fails to bunt or move a runner over. Sure, that's mostly the whole team, but he's the scapegoat. So many FA moves could have been made here to upgrade this position. Projected Grade: C-
Short Stop: Ryan Theriot - The very serviceable Ryan Theriot. You know what you're getting from Theriot. He'll make most of the plays that he should make in the field, and won't make the ones that are highlight worthy. He'll hit around .300, steal a few bases, and will undoubtedly be hit out of position. He's not a leadoff hitter, but I guess it's better than Alfie. Projected Grade: B-
Third Base: Aramis Ramierez - Will he stay healthy? That is the big question with Ramierez. If he does, he'll give us a great glove on the hot corner and a line of .300/30/100, if he doesn't, well, get used to Jeff Baker or the newly acquired corpse of Chad Tracy. Make no mistake: A-Ram is the cornerstone of this offense. Projected Grade: B
Left Field: Alfonso Soriano - also known as a steaming pile of dog fudge. Horrible in the field, severely regressing speed on the bases, diminishing power numbers which will surely further plummet by hitting down in the order (if you throw him a fastball, you should be sent to AAA), a body that's breaking down, and a crippling contract. Please Alfie, PLEASE just give us 80 RBI. That's all I want (other than a trade, if a team were stupid enough to go for it) Projected Grade: C-
Center Field: Marlon Byrd - HEY! Something to look forward to. I mean, at least it's not Milton Bradley! I'm a bit leery of his last season's numbers being a breakout year and that they came from a hitter's park in Texas, but whatever. Thus far he seems to be a likable guy, and a guy with some sorely needed power from an OF spot. I'm excited! Projected Grade: B
Right Field: Kosuke Fukudome - I like the hustle, I like the baseball smarts, I like that he's somewhat fleet of foot, I love his defense, I hate his contract, I hate his whirlybird strikeouts where he doesn't even come close to stepping towards the pitcher. Kosuke NEEDS to have a strong year for the Cubs to contend. He needs to play a complete season, no more petering out at the end, or getting off to a start that's slower than molasses in January. Projected Grade: B-
STARTING PITCHING
Starters:
Carlos Zambrano - I'm hearing a lot about a breakout year. I'm hearing a lot about how he's refocused on his mental approach and how he's taken care of his body in the offseason and has lost weight. I don't buy any of it. Zambrano is not an ace. I think Zambrano is a 3rd starter. He'll never get over his mental problems, and I think he'll have a bad season. Projected Grade: D
Ryan Dempster - Steady as she goes, Cum Dump. He's getting up in years, but the guy is a gamer. He's lost some zip on his fastball, but he seems to be pitching smarter. Unlike Zambrano, I think Dump will have a strong season. Let's say 15 wins and an ERA in the mid to high 3's. I'll be happy with that, wouldn't you? Projected Grade: B
Ted Lilly - Starting the year on the DL after offseason surgery. Lilly quietly has been the Cubs most consistent pitcher of the last 2 seasons. You have to wonder about a a guy in his mid-30's when he's coming off of shoulder trouble, I'm hoping he gets by on guts and guile - you know, a textbook "Crafty Lefty". Projected Grade: C+
Randy Wells - The guy that we could never score runs for is back! Wells was 12-10 last year with a very respectable 3.05 ERA. He probably should have been 15-7, but that's baseball. He doesn't have overpowering or nasty stuff, he just locates well and changes speeds. Perhaps a poor man's Mark Buehrle? I'd definitely take that from a 3rd or 4th starter! I expect a bit of regression as the league has now seen him for an entire season, but he still should be solid. Projected Grade: C+
Carlos Silva - He's fat, and he's what we got for getting rid of Milton Bradley. Frankly, I'd rather have seen Sean Marshall here, but maybe they didn't want to have 3 lefties in the starting rotation. I don't know anything about Silva other than that he's fat and he's got a historically high ERA. Maybe coming to the NL will help him. All I'm hoping for is that he can be an innings eater. And really, what can you really expect from a #5 starter? Projected Grade: C-
BULLPEN
Esmailin Caridad - Who? Yeah, I know. He's got some nasty stuff from what little I saw of him at the season's end last year and a bit of spring training stuff this year. I think the Cubs are looking for him to be an 8th inning guy now that Angel Guzman looks like his career is done. Who knows. Expect some growing pains. Projected Grade: C
Sean Marshall - our lefty who it looks like the Cubs want to be the long relief guy. Never mind that he should be starting, but I digress. He'll be a valuable commodity in a young bullpen with very little experience. Projected Grade: C+
John Grabow - the lefty situational reliever. He's not great, but not awful either, but he's making almost $3m a year. Projected Grade: C
A bunch of other dudes. Collective Projected Grade: C-
Carlos Marmol - Oh, Carlos. For the past two seasons I've told all who listened that you are destined to become Juan Cruz version 2.0. I hope I'm wrong. I hope you can get your control down and let you nasty movement leave batters frustrated from swinging and missing rather than be frustrated from another bruise by way of your recurring beanballs. This is his year where the closer job is his from the start. +/- for saves is 25. I'm nervous. Projected Grade: C+
OVERALL OUTLOOK
I don't feel good with this team. For it to win the Central, it seems that too many guys would have to produce career years, and that's not a good sign. I don't see the pitching being there, especially in the bullpen. With the lack of action in the offseason, I get the impression that the new management is looking to ride out these bad contracts until they can get something that they can work with. The problem is, by the time that happens, our big and reliable offensive guys like Lee and A-Ram will be past their primes. Needless to say, I'm not optimistic about the season. I predict a .500 record and a third place finish in the divisions. Like a dumbass, though, I'll be watching as much as I can.